Sunday, December 16, 2018

Crise des gilets jaunes: la bonne nouvelle

La colère des gilets jaunes a été déclenchée par la décision du Président Macron d'augmenter le prix du carburant. Cette crise cache une bonne nouvelle. Pour la première fois, les Français ont été confrontés en direct à ce qui va leur arriver bientôt de toute façon: la fin du pétrole pas cher.


La colère des gilets jaunes vise un pouvoir déconnecté de la réalité des Français (Image: Ouest France).

En réalité, notre consommation de pétrole baisse déjà. Pas par vertu, mais parce qu'il n'y en a plus assez pour tout le monde : la production mondiale de pétrole baisse, alors que le nombre de consommateurs augmente. Le problème: notre consommation ne baisse pas assez vite pour préserver notre climat et pour préparer l'après-pétrole.

Que faire alors?

Il faudra anticiper la raréfaction du pétrole plutôt que d'attendre qu'un choc pétrolier nous frappe pour de vrai comme en 1973. Cela veut dire: réduire notre consommation dès à présent. Se déplacer moins en avion et en voiture. Développer le train et le vélo, comme les Néerlandais. Réparer plus et consommer moins. Sortir de l'illusion de la croissance continue selon laquelle un monde fini peut produire toujours plus chaque année.

La crise des gilets jaunes appelle un vrai changement des modes de vie pour éviter une crise irréversible et plus grave.


Il faudra taxer le fret aérien et le fret maritime, qui pour l'instant ne paient pas un centime de taxes sur le kérosène et le fioul lourd qu'ils consomment. Une mesure à la fois juste et efficace : nous consommerons moins, car les produits bon marchés "made in China" venus par bateau cesseront d'être bon marchés.

Le retour à la sobriété sera difficile. Car tout le monde semble coincé dans un système d'abondance où chacun veut une maison avec deux voitures dans un décor de campagne. Un style de vie heureux mais énergivore, qui fait oublier "qu’une hausse de quelques centimes du prix de l’essence mettrait à mal leur modèle économique". C'est cette vérité que la crise des gilets jaunes a eu le mérite de nous révéler in vivo.

Un monde plus sobre: comment faire?

Selon Jean-Marc Jancovici, la transition vers la sobriété "implique le retour du totalitarisme, car la démocratie ne sait pas gérer la rareté. Elle ne sait que gérer que la liberté pour tous, donc l’abondance". Pour lui, l’effondrement politique a déjà commencé, comme en témoignent l’élection de Trump, le Brexit, les élections italiennes et les intentions de vote pour Marine Le Pen aux prochaines élections européennes.

Cette perspective désenchante et fait peur. Pour l'éviter, il faudra gérer la rareté du pétrole, non pas en refusant la sobriété mais en l'organisant rapidement. Car le mois prochain, ce n'est pas Emmanuel Macron mais quelqu'un d'autre qui augmentera le prix du carburant: les producteurs eux-mêmes. Une manifestation ne servira alors à rien. Il faudra faire avec moins de pétrole, comme en 1973.

En nous imposant un carburant plus cher, le Président nous a replongé artificiellement dans cette crise de 1973. Cette "transition écologique express" a déclenché les foudres, mais aussi une prise de conscience plus aiguë de ce qui nous attend de toute façon. D'un seul coup, l'avenir est devenu moins abstrait. C'est ça la bonne nouvelle de la crise des gilets jaunes.


16 comments:

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